Negative emotions, projection bias, and the vote choice in South Korea

Abstract

Can corruption scandals change voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ideological positions? While it is well established that competence shocks, such as corruption scandals, influence voters’ affective attachment to political elites and their perceived capacity to address social issues, this study explores how such shocks may also lead voters to perceive some candidates as more ideologically extreme. This phenomenon, known as the contrast effect, occurs when voters interpret signals of low competence as indicators of greater ideological distance from their preferred positions. This study focuses on a major corruption scandal in South Korea and examines its impact on voters’ perceptions of presidential candidates’ ideological positions. The findings reveal that during the election period, voters’ negative emotions towards the ex-president’s corruption led them to perceive greater ideological distance from certain candidates. Specifically, most centrist voters and those from one side of the political spectrum perceived the ‘corrupt’ party as moving further from their own ideological positions. This study highlights the importance of considering emotional responses to political events in shaping voters’ ideological perceptions and subsequent electoral choices.